What is the rise of monthly electricity transaction price
recently, some independent power selling companies have had a difficult time. Some enterprises reported the situation to the relevant departments and the media because they were dissatisfied with the lack of power to sell or the trading results. In any case, the main reason for the grievances of independent power selling companies is that the monthly transaction price decline narrowed. Of course, at this time, the non-ferrous vision of power generation enterprises has risen again. The coal-fired enterprises have been beaten by coal prices. They are full of tears: Baobao is really wronged...
in fact, in the fourth quarter, the monthly transaction prices of electricity in all regions have increased, and the difference with the last electricity price is also narrowing, and there is a trend to continue to rise. At present, when the power selling companies mainly rely on price difference, it is certain that life will be difficult. In particular, most of the power selling companies sign annual or quarterly agency contracts with users, using the "minimum guarantee + sharing" model. If the agency contracts cannot be adjusted in time through consultation with users, some power selling companies may not even get the minimum guarantee price in the market, or do not deal at all. It is no longer inevitable to complain. The author briefly analyzes why the monthly trading price of electricity will rise
first, the coal price has continued to rise recently. August has been a period of low coal prices over the years, but this year, due to many factors such as capacity removal, the temperature of refrigerant drops and the coal price continues to rise. It is expected that the coal price will continue to rise during the heating period in winter. The cost pressure may be greater in the fourth quarter. As the power generation cost rises, it is not surprising that the transaction price rises. It is not the market that cannot transmit the cost rise, but the reservoir
second, the benchmark electricity prices in various regions have been raised. Recently, according to the requirements of the national development and Reform Commission, many places have raised the benchmark electricity price of coal-fired power generation enterprises. According to incomplete statistics, the increase range is between 0.14 points/kWh and 2.28 points/kWh. Once the "anchor" of the benchmark electricity price changes, it is not surprising that the electricity price of power generation enterprises in the market transaction is expected to rise
thirdly, the tariff of user directory has been reduced. While the benchmark electricity price was raised, the catalog electricity price was lowered. In Chongqing, the drop was as large as 3.57 cents/kWh, which reduced the space for the purchase and sale price difference to be squeezed by both ends, making the expected electricity price for the user side to participate in market transactions lower. For the above two reasons, the expectations of both the issuer and the user on the transaction price rise and fall, resulting in serious contradictions
fourth, it may pave the way for the long-term association negotiation next year. The fourth quarter is about to enter. Some enterprises are already studying the annual long-term association transaction in 2018. Because the annual contract accounts for a large proportion, for some users who have the idea of "eating big customers", the average value of the monthly bidding decline is usually the starting price of the annual long-term association. The power generation enterprises prefer to generate a part of the electricity transaction loss, but are also willing to reduce the monthly trading price decline in the following months, so as to prepare for the annual long-term association negotiation
fifth, the impact of the heating period in the north. In October, the three northern regions will gradually enter the heating period. In some areas with excess installed power generation, the first technology of non heating unit welding technology, casting/casting technology, material mixing (die-casting products)/bonding technology, and others; All the power generation plans in 2017 may be completed in September, and some of the heating units that are shut down in non heating periods have a large number of basic power plans to be generated in winter. Some of the electricity is operated in a dead way in winter, and the willingness of power generation enterprises participating in market transactions has decreased, which has affected the supply to a certain extent
if monopoly or price collusion is carried out in an organized and premeditated way, it should be supervised and stopped at any time. If the trading trend formed by "tacit" after most market players' respective decisions, it belongs to the overall expectation of the supply side
when the upstream coal price is rising (more than 50% year-on-year) and the downstream product price is rising (such as electrolytic aluminum and other high energy consumption), if the bridge in the middle - the electricity price is still "firm" and moves towards price reduction, it is not a market but a miracle. In other words, if a power generation enterprise can become a "reservoir" for coal and industrial electricity prices, and it is still doing well, it can only be "God bless"
to sum up, it can be concluded that there are practical reasons for the recent narrowing of transaction prices, rather than the emotional "monopoly" of individual subjects
in other words, the author also suggests that the relevant government departments should pay attention to the guiding direction of market construction. If the market participants still simply believe that the price reduction of power generation enterprises should also increase with the increase of the planned liberalization, it will inevitably lead to the low transaction efficiency of the annual long-term Association, resulting in the reduction of the transaction rate of the long-term association. Users must purchase a large amount of the monthly transaction electricity of next year. This is the same as the California crisis that some domestic experts often say market risks are "Ironic". The proportion of long-term cooperation is too low (or does not exist). Once the short-term transaction price fluctuates violently, the market will have big problems. The advantage of late development is that it can avoid "the pit that California has fallen into", but don't criticize others for their poor level, and make the same mistake. It should be noted that California didn't sign the long-term association because of the illusion that "tomorrow's electricity price will be better"
I hope Ye min is just "worrying about nothing": if the coal price continues to rise, the market transaction price in some regions may exceed the benchmark price. Without the corresponding policy guidance and cooperation, even if the "price reduction expectations" are carried out in the plating bath with very good leveling performance, the market players will inevitably "have fierce emotions" and try their best to promote a round of severe action against non price reduction in various regions, There is a risk of "premature death" of the fledgling market-oriented transactions, which requires policy makers to keep their concentration and continue to deepen reform, the understanding, support and cooperation of the whole society, and the market players to mature as soon as possible